Why is the 2025 Boom Different from 2021?
Two years ago, the MNB (Central Bank) base rate was still 18%. Today, it stands at 6.5%. But the real turning point came in September.
The Market's Response? Explosion.
The numbers speak for themselves. According to market surveys, the demand index jumped to 110 points in August, marking a 13-year high.
In the first two weeks of the launch, 1,000 loan applications arrived daily, and overall mortgage demand increased tenfold. The number of property viewings grew by 16.6% in August. The appetite for buying has clearly returned.
Traffic is back, but the rules have changed
Something is Different: The Crucial Difference
In 2021, no one asked, "Is this property overpriced?" Buyers competed for properties, often bidding above the asking price. Now? Even with a 3% loan, they negotiate.
2021: FOMO-Driven Fever
Everyone was afraid of missing out. "Buy it now, it will be more expensive tomorrow." The market was characterized by emotional, panic-like buying. Technical condition was secondary; ownership was all that mattered.
2025: Subsidy-Driven Caution
Many are buying because ownership is finally accessible, but not blindly. They visit five to ten apartments, not just two or three. They compare. Energy rating has become a basic requirement. Creditworthiness is clarified in advance. And most importantly: they negotiate.
Why Caution with a 3% Loan?
Buyers haven't forgotten 2022-23. They saw prices drop by 20-30%. They saw those who bought at the 2021 peak realize losses. They fear the scenario will repeat itself and don't want to be "tricked."
Sellers' Perspective vs. Reality
What Sellers Think
Many still consider 2021 prices realistic and are even asking for more due to the Otthon Start program. The logic is often: "The 3% loan is here, so I should raise the price because buyers will buy anyway."
What Actually Happens
It doesn't work that way. Realistically priced properties sell within 2-6 weeks; sales times are indeed shortening. However, overpriced properties remain on the market for months, even in this "boom."
Expert estimates suggest Otthon Start could bring a 10-20% price increase within a year, but buyers do not want to buy overpriced properties right at the beginning of the rise.
The market is functional and lively. In October, "Otthon Start" contracts worth nearly 170 billion HUF were signed.
However, buyers are more cautious and conscious. The interest rate cut brought back the traffic, but not the fever.
Perhaps this is for the best.